The specter of a potential Russian attack on NATO nations has loomed large in recent months, prompting urgent calls for preparedness from the United States. In an exclusive interview with USA TODAY, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker emphasized the need for vigilance and proactive defense measures, despite Russian denials and conflicting assessments.
While Putin's intentions remain shrouded in uncertainty, the intelligence community's warnings have sent shockwaves through the alliance. Leaked reports suggest Russia could launch a limited assault, be it a land incursion or a cyberattack, within the next few years. This revelation has sparked a heightened sense of alertness among NATO members, especially given the ongoing concerns about a U.S. weapons shortage amidst the Trump administration's war with Iran.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that Russia, battle-weary from its war with Ukraine, is not operating on the same timeline as NATO when it comes to defense spending. This asymmetry has prompted calls for NATO allies to accelerate their defense preparations and increase their production capacity.
"Where there's an asymmetry between Russia and NATO is that they are on a war footing and we're not," said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "They can produce a thousand cruise missiles. Our ability to provide air defense interceptors or produce them is just inept."
Adding to the tension, CIA Director John Ratcliffe's unannounced visit to Moscow has stoked concerns that Putin may be moving from taunting to testing NATO's resolve. Ratcliffe reportedly warned Russia against attacking NATO territory and urged Moscow to cut ties with Iran. However, Russian officials have denied any plans to attack NATO, with Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, stating that such reports have no basis in reality.
Despite these denials, some within the alliance remain unconvinced. Radoslaw Sikorski, the Polish minister of foreign affairs, drew parallels to former CIA Director Nicholas Burns' visit to Moscow before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, emphasizing the need to accelerate defense preparations.
European officials believe Russia has already been testing NATO's limits through a series of hybrid attacks on member nations. The discovery of explosive drones near a Ukrainian cargo plane in Germany and the presence of a naval drone near an offshore gas facility off Romania's Black Sea coast are seen as acts of war by experts like Fiona Hill, who served as the senior director for Russian and European affairs on the National Security Council during the first Trump administration.
"These acts of sabotage are pretty significant, and they are acts of war," Hill said. "People are constantly saying, 'Well, we're not at war. War is kinetic. They're not lobbing missiles on us.' But that is exactly what Putin wants because it leaves everybody else defenseless and vulnerable."
While Putin is undoubtedly testing NATO's resolve with increasingly reckless attacks on countries close to Ukraine, European officials do not believe he is baiting the alliance into a fight. Instead, they view his actions as an attempt to scare NATO nations into ending their support for Ukraine, out of fear of being pulled into the war.
The growing concern is that Russian forces, now incorporating drone formations and precision strike capabilities, could conduct more effective strikes or small but painful operations. Michael Kofman, a senior fellow specializing in Russian warfare at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, warned that Russian military reconstitution is not a matter of if but when.
"Russia is pretty occupied with the situation in Ukraine," Whitaker said. "It's not going well. And it would take, even if an immediate pivot, it would still take years to reconstitute, to return to the pre-2022, pre-Ukraine invasion Russian army."
As the situation unfolds, NATO allies must navigate a delicate balance between preparedness and escalation, all while keeping a watchful eye on Putin's next move.
